The War on Terror and the Approaching War with Iran

             Politicians, pundits, and the press have now begun warning of the Bush administration's preparation for war with Iran. The President's emphasis on destroying Iranian networks and aggressively pursuing American interests throughout the region are clear signals that another Tonkin Gulf/WMD type incident that could be used to expand the war in Iraq into Iran may well be in the offing.  It is almost certain that US efforts have been underway to destabilize the Iranian regime from without, and quite likely that undercover operations are underway inside the country for the same purpose.

            But what has not been understood or publicly commented upon is the powerful link between the War on Terror and the impetus toward war with Iran.  When I wrote the conclusion to Trapped in the War on Terror I included two paragraphs warning that the logic of the War on Terror, that would require large scale terrorist attacks on the U.S. homeland to preserve itself, would push any administration committed to it to provoke enemies, such as Iran capable of delivering those attacks.  At the time I wrote those paragraphs I wondered if readers would find my reasoning and predictions too difficult to imagine or accept.  I'm glad now that I did indeed not shrink from reporting the predictions of building pressures toward war with Iran I thought the logic of my argument had produced.  Here's a brief excerpt from the final chapter of Trapped in the War on Terror (minus the footnotes).

        "In the spring of . 2006 ..Iranian radicals, led by their fanatical President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Their bravado about Iranian uranium enrichment appears designed to polarize Iranian relations with the west to their faction’s internal political advantage. As if on cue, War on Terror pundits in Washington, including members of the cabal that orchestrated the American-led invasion of Iraq, have begun promoting the idea of the preventive bombing of Iran, followed up if necessary by an invasion.  According to information leaked by officials within the Pentagon opposed to such ideas, even the preemptive use of nuclear weapons against Iran is under consideration.

            Many observers have wondered what role President Bush’s plummeting approval ratings and the desperation of a Republican Party seemingly headed for defeat in the fall 2006 elections might play in authorizing such an attack. In line with the analysis presented here such calculations, along with supercharged policy arguments regarding Iranian nuclear capacities, reflect nothing so much as the frightening capacity the mechanisms of the War on Terror may have to produce the enemies the war needs to sustain itself. Indeed, as even the advocates of such a policy acknowledge, the regime in Tehran and its Hezbollah allies based in Lebanon would respond to American attacks with a worldwide campaign of terrorism against U.S. targets. These attacks would dwarf anything al-Qaeda has been or could be capable of mounting, thereby contributing a list of 9/11-type outrages long enough to help sustain the War on Terror for many years to come."


        Ultimately we will not end the Iraq War, or be safe from the Iran War, unless we also expose and bring an end to the deeper pathology that still resists explicit public scrutiny--the War on Terror.

Interesting asides on war with Iran

Interesting asides:

If war with Iran is in fact imminent (which I fear it is), a recent unrelated incident in the Persian Gulf may have held the potential to stymie U.S. war plans. A surfacing U.S. nuclear submarine bumped a Japanese oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz two weeks ago. There was little damage to either vessel.

However, had the sub had a direct collision with the tanker causing serious damage to each, including a massive oil spill and leaked nuclear material, the consequences could have been catastrophic. Ironically, that may have been enough to set back the U.S. attack plan long enough to make it too late for Bush to go to war – perhaps, changing the course of human history.

U.S. attack on Iran

War with Iran indeed seems likely. Signs are everywhere. Among them, these:
1. In President’s “surge” speech the most notable statements related to “confronting Iran.” He needed no speech to announce to the nation his sending 20,000 more troops to Iraq; he had more troops there last year. Additional troop make more strategic sense if mission is to beef up U.S. defenses in anticipation for attack on Iran than they do to defeat insurgency.
2. Centcom’s new chief is a Navy Admiral with little experience in insurgency warfare, but his experience lends itself well to an attack on Iran.

3. Bush announces he’s sending two carrier groups to the Persian Gulf. This has little to do with fighting an insurgency, but much to do with attacking Iran.

4. Bush announces sending Patriot missiles to Iraq. Such weapons have no strategic value in a ground war, but are well suited and necessary to fight Iran.

5. The day after U.S. forces raid Iranian consulate in Kurdish Irbil, arrest 5 Iranians with diplomatic credentials, and seize computers and documents.

6. Col. Sam Gardener, among others, claims U.S. Special Forces are already operating in Iran. The day after Bush’s speech several large explosions are reported in southern Iran.

7. The European financial giant ING Group issues special report to its clients saying that an Israeli/U.S. attack on Iran likely in February or March.

(Of course, his reasons for war appear specious. Nobody actually paying attention believes that Shiite Iran is supplying the largely Sunni insurgency with weapons to kill it Shiite Iraqis. In reality the evidence is nonexistent: Defense Secretary Des Browne said “I have not myself seen any evidence – and I don't think any evidence exists – of government-supported or instigated armed support on Iran's part in Iraq.")

State of the Union and Iran

Further to your point, Dan, we heard the President speak tonight about "the regime in Teheran." This kind of delegitimizing reference to a country, to reduce it to a "regime," is a tactic to prepare its image as an enemy to be removed rather than as a sovereign state. I also noted the evocation of "Shiite" terrorists or extremists as a parallel to al-Qaeda, figured as the Sunni extremist threat, thereby including Iran under the "big tent" of the enemies we must fight because of 9/11.

In contrast, and somewhat hearteningly, the Democratic response by Senator Webb emphasized precisely the opposite, the need for regional diplomatic engagement. Still I was dismayed, though not surprised, to see that Webb mentioned the "War on Terrorism" four times in just eight minutes, mostly to justify deescalation in Iraq. Bush mentioned terrorists, al-Qaeda, the War on Terror, and 9/11, a total of 37 times. But that was over 50 minutes.

If we are, as you say, and as I believe, operating clandestinely areadly in Iran, then we have to wonder whether a "Persian Gulf Incident," real, provoked, or manufactured out of whole cloth, will be long in coming.

Ian Lustick

Pretext for attack on Iran

Consider these possible pretexts for war:

1. "Hot pursuit" by U.S. troops into Iranian territory and confrontation with Iranian troops.

2. Persian Gulf “incident” a la Tonkin Gulf 1964.

3. Israeli surprise attack on Iranian nuclear sites a la Osirak, Iraq 1981, followed by U.S. “support” by way of destruction of Iranian air and naval forces.

All require no Congressional authorization, no pre-selling to the public, and they all necessarily happen without notice (i.e., fait accompli). And, they have the added virtue of being immediately followed by a spontaneous suspension of disbelief by the media and the public and a massive wave of Democratic patriotic support -- hence, no political fallout, in fact the country will probably rally around the president in that time of crisis (and Bush needs it bad).

Seems more plausible than absurd.

(It's all quite terrifying, and depressing.)

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